ID 54862
JaLCDOI
Sort Key
5
Title Alternative
Method for predicting minimum air temperature in the next morning using local meteorological observation data - Improvement on minimum air temperature forecasting system utilizing the Internet -
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Author
Ueda, Yu Graduate School of Environmental and life Science, Okayama University
Mishima, Takuya
Miura, Takeshi Graduate School of Environmental and life Science, Okayama University
Moroizumi, Toshitsugu Graduate School of Environmental and life Science, Okayama University
Abstract
We have developed a minimum air temperature forecasting system using local meteorological observation data in order to prevent or mitigate the frost damage. In this paper, the correlation between the meteorological factors and the decrease in air temperature during the night was shown. Then minimum air temperature was predicted by the multiple regression equation that uses air temperature and humidity at 18:00 as explanatory variables. As the result, the root mean square error (RMSE) was 2.8°C. When the difference of air temperature between 17:00 and 18:00 was used for the prediction instead of humidity, the RMSE was 3.5°C. Next, the prediction was carried out only in clear nights, then the equation that use air temperature and humidity at 18:00 showed that the RMSE was 1.3°C. Although the predictive accuracy of the equations for clear nights is low on cloudy or rainy nights, we can forecast safely on frosty nights by using those equations in combination with the equations for all nights.
Keywords
Minimum air temperature
prediction
frost damage
IT
multiple regression analysis
Note
研究論文 環境管理工学科
Publication Title
岡山大学環境理工学部研究報告
Published Date
2017-03
Volume
volume22
Issue
issue1
Publisher
岡山大学環境理工学部
Publisher Alternative
Faculty of Environmental Science and Technology, Okayama University
Start Page
55
End Page
59
ISSN
2187-6940
Content Type
Departmental Bulletin Paper
OAI-PMH Set
岡山大学
language
日本語
File Version
publisher
NAID
Eprints Journal Name
fest