岡山大学環境理工学部研究報告 ISSN 2187-6940
Published by Faculty of Environmental Science and Technology, Okayama University

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Analysis of the effectiveness of control strategies against bioterrorist smallpox attacks by using Individual Based Model

Zenihana, Tomohiro
Hisakane, Naoto
Morimoto, Tomoko
Abstract
We carried out simulations of various scenarios for bioterrorist attacks using smallpox occurring in a virtual area set up on the basis of the census of Okayama-city, Japan, which predict the effect of control strategies against bioterrorism and the loss scale. On simulating a smallpox epidemic, we followed the method of the Individual Based Model stochastically, which can treat the population in the virtual area as individuals. Individuals have personal information, behavior patterns, and interactions among social groups. We took into consideration the influence of residual immunity due to past vaccination. We considered Traced Vaccination (TV) and Mass Vaccination (MV) strategies against bioterrorism. We investigated the effect of TV and MV strategies on the suppression of smallpox epidemics. Consequently, the TV strategy was found to have higher effectiveness than the MV strategy.
Keywords
smallpox
bioterrorism
Individual Based Model
Traced Vaccination
Mass Vaccination
ISSN
1341-9099
NCID
AN10529213