JaLCDOI 10.18926/fest/54862
Title Alternative Method for predicting minimum air temperature in the next morning using local meteorological observation data - Improvement on minimum air temperature forecasting system utilizing the Internet -
FullText URL fest_022_055_059.pdf
Author Ueda, Yu| Mishima, Takuya| Miura, Takeshi| Moroizumi, Toshitsugu|
Abstract We have developed a minimum air temperature forecasting system using local meteorological observation data in order to prevent or mitigate the frost damage. In this paper, the correlation between the meteorological factors and the decrease in air temperature during the night was shown. Then minimum air temperature was predicted by the multiple regression equation that uses air temperature and humidity at 18:00 as explanatory variables. As the result, the root mean square error (RMSE) was 2.8°C. When the difference of air temperature between 17:00 and 18:00 was used for the prediction instead of humidity, the RMSE was 3.5°C. Next, the prediction was carried out only in clear nights, then the equation that use air temperature and humidity at 18:00 showed that the RMSE was 1.3°C. Although the predictive accuracy of the equations for clear nights is low on cloudy or rainy nights, we can forecast safely on frosty nights by using those equations in combination with the equations for all nights.
Keywords Minimum air temperature prediction frost damage IT multiple regression analysis
Publication Title 岡山大学環境理工学部研究報告
Published Date 2017-03
Volume volume22
Issue issue1
Start Page 55
End Page 59
ISSN 2187-6940
language 日本語
File Version publisher
NAID 120005997443
JaLCDOI 10.18926/fest/54863
Title Alternative Evaluation of drop in official air temperature record at Okayama caused by relocation of observation field of Okayama Local Meteorological Observatory - By comparison with records observed at surrounding points -
FullText URL fest_022_061_064.pdf
Author Miura, Takeshi| Ueda, Yu| Morita, Hidenori| Chikamori, Hidetaka| Kurokawa, Masahiro| Nakashima, Yoshitaka| Oki, Yoko|
Abstract Statistical change in official temperature records at Okayama City caused by relocation of meteorological observation field of Meteorological Agency was evaluated. The observation field of Okayama local meteorological observatory was moved to the Tsushima Campus of Okayama University from the downtown area of Okayama City in March, 2015. Comparison between the air temperature records measured at meteorological agency station and the records at Tanjo Pond in Tsushima Campus, showed 0.56 ℃ drop in annual average before and after relocation. Moreover, comparison between the records of Okayama local meteorological observatory and that at the surrounding meteorological observing 9 stations showed 0.55 ℃ drop in annual average. Those results suggest that the relocation dropped annual average of air temperature by about 0.6 ℃.
Keywords Okayama Local Meteorological Observatory relocation drop in air temperature
Publication Title 岡山大学環境理工学部研究報告
Published Date 2017-03
Volume volume22
Issue issue1
Start Page 61
End Page 64
ISSN 2187-6940
language 日本語
File Version publisher
NAID 120005997444